UDC 556.324:551.577.38
Shklyarenko V.V., Shevchenko O.L.
Shklyarenko V.V. Postgraduate student, junior researcher at the Laboratory for Research on the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; ORCID: 0009–0002–9866–558X; vlkshkl@ukr.net.
Shevchenko O.L. Doctor of Geological Sciences, Chief Researcher at the Laboratory for Research on the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine; ORCID: 0000–0002–5791–5354; shevch62@gmail.com.
DOI:
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ASSESSMENT OF HYDROGEOLOGICAL DROUGHT MANIFESTATIONS USING SPI AND SGI INDICES IN THE SOUTHERN BUG RIVER BASIN
The paper considers the issue of identifying hydrogeological droughts in the Southern Bug River basin in the context of reducing the dependence of water supply on the adverse impact of climate change. Based on the analysis of standardized precipitation indices (SPI) and groundwater levels (SGI), spatiotemporal patterns of drought development were established. The indices for 2016 were mapped using the spline interpolation method in the ArcMap environment. A time lag between meteorological and hydrogeological droughts (1–2 months) was identified, which indicates the inertia of groundwater systems. The central areas of the basin, where aquifers lie in fractured crystalline rocks of the Ukrainian Shield, were identified as the most vulnerable. The results obtained confirm the effectiveness of the combined use of the SPI and SGI indices for assessing drought processes and can serve as the basis for creating a regional early warning system for hydrogeological droughts under climate change. The study confirmed the close relationship between atmospheric (SPI) and hydrogeological (SGI) droughts. The SPI and SGI indices revealed similar spatial patterns, however, there is a time lag of about 1–2 months between them, which indicates the inertia of the groundwater regime. Such a reaction delay is due to hydrogeological conditions – the capacity of the aeration zone, the type of supply and the filtration properties of rocks. The results showed that the central regions of the basin are the most vulnerable to the manifestations of hydrogeological drought. The detected time lag confirms the possibility of using the SGI index as an early indicator of the formation of hydrogeological droughts and a potential tool for predicting the deficit of underground river recharge. The obtained patterns constitute a scientific basis for improving the regional drought monitoring system and developing adaptation strategies for groundwater management in the context of climate change.
Keywords: hydrogeological drought, SPI, SGI indices, water resources, interpolation, climate change, Southern Bug.
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